Verification of daily extreme temperatures
2018-01-16 (IPMA)
The automatic extreme daily temperatures forecasts are available for more than 300 locations up to 10 days. As the atmosphere behaves like a chaotic system, the confidence in a given forecast decreases as the range increases, hence it becomes useful to know the magnitude of typical errors.
The verification of the forecasts made 1, 4 and 7 days in advance is available at and
shows the difference between the forecast and the observation for a selected number of weather
stations in Portugal.
The quality of the forecasts depends on the weather conditions and the location. A forecast
is defined as correct if its value is within a 2ºC range of the observation. Under these conditions
the percentage of correct forecasts is around 90-95% and 80-85% for the forecasts made,
respectively, with one and four days in advance.
Given that the Feels Like Temperature was already available in IPMA’s forecast app, this variable becomes now an addition to the webpage. This variable combines the effects of cold caused by the wind and heat induced by the relative humidity. The Feels Like temperature will be available hourly up to 2 or 3 days and every 3 hours up to 6 days.
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